I left Microsoft a few weeks ago after ten years in the Web Developer Tools and Platforms group. Leaving a company after that long is kind of like a divorce. You’re a little sad, a little anxious, a little angry.
However, I think it’s wrong to start with the premise that there is anything “wrong” with Microsoft. One could argue that this is just a time of growing pains for the company.
I must note before I continue that what follows is nothing more than my personal opinion, it’s just observation and conjecture based on my experience.
Microsoft grew to dominance in a very different technological era than the one we live in today.
AT&T was once absolutely dominant in the telecommunications industry, it slid almost into obscurity and it has since rebuilt itself to become a significant participant in a re-invented industry.
The question as it pertains to Microsoft is, does Microsoft need to do that today, and is it capable of doing so?mismanaged
Microsoft’s success was more than just a matter of being in the right place at the right time. Bill Gates made clever decisions during a perfect storm or circumstances that made the personal computer both possible and viable. But Bill Gates is not making the decisions at Microsoft any more. Microsoft Windows and Microsoft Office grew to dominance in a time when the personal computer was the entire industry. Now, I’m not suggesting that Microsoft didn’t make smart choices and investments along the way and I’m not saying that they didn’t develop some outstanding products because they did.
So, what’s different now? What are the new challenges?
When I last heard a statistic on the subject, something like 65% of Microsoft’s residual revenue stream was produced by Windows and Office, which I’ll collectively refer to as “the desktop”. We could make the argument that these two sets of products are really a single product line as they are inextricably bound and marketed to a single customer base via a unified strategy. Microsoft still has market dominance in the desktop, though it has started to lose some of that majority percentage to Apple, Linux, and non-PC based computing.
But the state of the desktop is becoming a problem for Microsoft. I predict Windows Vista will be looked back on as the biggest disaster in Microsoft’s history, and not because it was technically bad. In fact I don’t think it was technically bad, but I think as a product it was terribly . Microsoft started talking about Windows Vista and advertising it’s features far before it was sure it could even deliver those features. Ultimately it didn’t deliver some of the features that were most anxiously anticipated. Microsoft also failed to properly engage OEMs and ISVs to insure compatibility of existing hardware and application software.
Window 7 was an improvement, but Windows Vista had done it’s damage. Millions of users discovered that they didn’t actually need to upgrade their operating system just because Microsoft published a new version. The poor publicity of Windows Vista fueled an acceleration of new Apple Mac purchases and a bump in adoption of Linux on the desktop. People purchased new Windows based Personal Computers and “upgraded” Windows Vista to Windows XP.
Windows XP is still the most popular version of Windows and this is symptomatic of a bigger problem. When it comes to both Windows and Microsoft Office, the existing, and even older versions of the software are “good enough”. The more the products evolve, the more the development teams need to stretch to add new features and the less the average user needs those new features. Those features don’t always justify the cost of an upgrade.
Should I upgrade Windows and Office with features I probably don’t need or should I use that money and go buy a new iPad ?
This is a real problem when we remember that 65% of Microsoft’s revenue stream comes from Windows and Office.
With Windows 8, Microsoft will look to force users to upgrade. More on that later.
Though Microsoft has worked hard to succeed in additional genre, the company has really struggled to hit home runs in lines of business beyond the PC desktop operating system and office productivity tools.
Lets review some of the spaces where Microsoft competes.
1.) Web Workload.
Though ASP.NET had strong early success, LAMP (Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP) is, and looks like it will continue to be #1 in the space. The margin appears to be increasing and Microsoft seems to be reducing it’s focus on self-host web technologies in favor of a Microsoft centric cloud strategy.
2.) Mobile.
Microsoft spent HUGE amounts of money to renew it’s phone strategy, however that investment has not yielded as much adoption as they probably hoped.
Windows Phone 7 is actually a pretty good technical effort, but has been delivered in the face of several big challenges.
The target market for Windows Phone 7 is exclusively the consumer market. For developers, Windows Phone 7 is all about targeting that consumer market as well by building applications for distribution through Microsoft own Phone app store. Unfortunately, Apple beat them to that market by a long shot and Android beat them by a good stretch too. (And version #1 of Windows Phone 7 was good, but not perfect.)
Another potential challenge is that Windows Mobile 6x, was not exclusive to the phone as a platform. It was an embeddable operating system that was used in all kinds of devices, but lacked a modern development model (like .NET), but developers using Windows Mobile for embedded development were left behind by Windows Phone 7 which is a “Phone Only” effort at this point.
After leaving Microsoft I divested myself of all the Microsoft stock that I held at the time of my resignation, but as a shareholder I was particularly worried by what seemed to me to be Microsoft’s own statement of concern about the likely hood of Windows Phone 7’s success.
Microsoft seemed to have modified it’s model for competition in the mobile space by, rather than competing primarily on technical and value based merit, moving to rely most heavily, at least in the short term, on inhibiting the competition through litigation, or more accurately the threat of litigation – alleging patent infringement of the part of device manufacturers, often suggesting infringement against patents of technology that Microsoft acquired through mergers and acquisitions rather than on technologies that were invented in house by Microsoft.
3.) On Line (Cloud, Search, etc.)
By Microsoft’s own admission it’s on line business is not succeeding as it desires. They recently moved developer hero Scott Guthrie to try to drive Azure to viability.
Microsoft focus on both search and cloud offerings came after other companies had already established dominance in those respective spaces.
Historically, Microsoft has been able to come late to the table, behind other companies, and leverage it’s dominance of the desktop market to catch up to the competition, but one could argue that this business model no longer holds promise because the desktop itself is no longer so important.
4.) The Browser.
Microsoft has the #1 browser market share (with all versions combined) primarily because Internet Explorer comes with Windows, but Firefox and Chrome have succeeded in garnering many hundreds of millions of user to proactively choose to use a non-Microsoft browser in place of Internet Explorer
Is this a big deal, you may ask?
Yes, because the desktop of the future is the cloud and the Window to the cloud (in the short term at least) is the browser.
Win the browser (and control over the technologies that he browser supports) , and you win the user. (Check out on Amazon’s huge play with a new browser this week.)
5.) Servers.
Microsoft has done OK with server products where those products are tied to it’s desktop ecosystem, like with Sharepoint, and it’s database has done pretty well outside the web workload space. Microsoft client developer tools remain the leaders for Microsoft centric development, especially when the environment is Windows only and relies on Windows based authentication.
In recent years Microsoft has invested in projects to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars only to pull the plug after version commercial release (like the Surface and the Kin)
And, Microsoft has consistently failed to to “grock” the consumer space.
Microsoft recently pulled the plug on Zune, the Kin, and previous attempts at the table form factor have been consistently underwhelming.
Microsoft REALLY gets the desktop, but doesn’t really seem to get much else.
But wait, what about Windows 8 ????
In my personal opinion (and it is just my opinion), Steven Sinofsky is positioning himself to take over Microsoft, and I think he is succeeding.
We’ve heard little from Steve Ballmer of late and Scott Guthrie had very little presence at the BUILD (Windows 8) developers conference earlier this month.
And really, who is left. Long standing candidates like Bob Muglia are no longer around and Microsoft has been unable to retain newly recruited prospective senior leaders like Ray Ozzie.
So what’s happening at Microsoft?
Literally hundreds of people have left Microsoft this fall alone
Now, Microsoft folks would suggest to you that this turnover happens every fall and it does, but not nearly to this extent.
I think this exodus is probably a necessary trend at Microsoft, and at least in part, is expected by Microsoft’s management. Selective attrition and Microsoft’s updated forced stack ranking should help Microsoft reduce it’s staff by ten percent or so.
My guess is that much of the attrition will take place in the expensive director level, senior technical contributor, and superfluous management staff complements. This attrition may even be intentional on the part of Microsoft and is probably necessary for Microsoft long term fiscal success. Microsoft is simply too large, too top heavy and it needs to reduce staff and cut spending in order to survive and thrive in the new market climate it must succeed in.
In any event Microsoft seems content to allow so many people to leave and I’ve not heard of any attempt to retain people who announce their resignatoin, though they do seem to care where they are going to.
This will be a very hard time at Microsoft. As it becomes less and less “fun” to work at Microsoft, as benefits are reduced and bonuses shrink, more senior technical folks will seek out new thrills and challenges at the likes of Google, Amazon, Facebook, and the plethora of start-up companies that are popping up to pursue opportunities in the emerging cloud and mobile computing spaces.
What I think Sinofsky “gets” is that Microsoft has to stop spending money outside it’s core competence and, for a while at least”, get back to keeping control of, and making money from, it’s mainstay – Windows.
I have to give Stephen Sinofsky credit. Though I’m not sure if his Windows 8 strategy will save or destroy Microsoft, it’s a bold move and I applaud him for seeing that something has to be done sooner, rather than later, and making a big bet!
So, what is he doing.
Again – this is just my speculation – it’s not based on any inside information.
First, Sinofsky is taking Windows and everything about it BACK into the Windows team (s) and keeping control of it all centralized there. And by that, I mean complete control.
Windows 8 will be a huge change in the evolution of Windows and Sinofsky has, so far, avoided many of the early problems with Windows Vista.
Early Windows development was locked down. If you weren’t working on it, you didn’t have access to it. There were no leaks.
There is no release date speculated – they declare “it will ship when it’s ready”.
Unlike the early previews of Windows Vista, everything Microsoft has shown about Windows 8 looks pretty functional and so it’s not likely that they will get the community excited about features that won’t actually be able to ship.
Marketing and Evangelism have been centralized with product development thereby centralizing not only all product and feature development around Windows and Developer technolgies, but the related messaging as well. Blogging and other Developer Community efforts (and people) are being pulled beck to the Windows organizations.
And what about .NET? After all, Microsoft has been touting .NET for over a decade now.
Well, here are some GUESSES!
I doubt that future versions of .NET will be supported on versions of Windows older than Windows 7. What is especially important about this is that newly built applications will therefore not work on Windows XP. If you want to run a “new” .NET application, you will have to upgrade from Windows XP, which means Microsoft will get some money from you.
Note: there is nothing really underhanded about this. Windows XP is more than a decade old and so Windows XP reaching End-of-Life is in keeping with the standard product life-cycle policy that Microsoft has always had.
What about Silverlight and WPF? I think .NET’s future, especially these parts of it, is precarious at best.
Silverlight and WPF have been on converging trajectories for some time now. It’s MS folklore that Bill Gates always referred to Silverlight at the “ef” Windows strategy as it was built to be cross-platform. It’s easy to guess how the Windows organization’s executive team feels about Silverlight or anything that comprises an average consumer’s dependence on Windows.
All “Windows Client” development technologies are now owned by the Windows team. Though it seems likely that Silverlight will remain important for development on the Windows Phone, at least for the near future, you can guess what the ultimate long term future of Silverlight & WPF will be. Even though WPF and Silverlight applications will run as legacy applications on Windows 8, clearly Microsoft’s emphasis for Windows 8 user interface development is the new Metro based stack and a Resurrection of C++.
If I’m right this will be very painful for developers that have chosen these technologies and don’t look for these technologies to go away over night.
“But wait”, you say. It’s HTML, CSS, JavaScript so it’s “standard”.
Well, not really. I wouldn’t call it standard, I’d call it familiar. JavaScript code for a Windows 8 application user interface will need to be heavily interlaced with Windows specific code and API usage.
It’s not going to run anywhere but on Windows 8 (and above), at least not with technology provided by Microsoft.
The big question remains, will Windows 8 save, or kill Microsoft (or neither) ?
I wish I new. There is no question that Windows 8 is interesting, but will it hit the intended target?
Though reports of the demise of the desktop are premature, it is a statistical fact that more than half of the traffic on the Internet no longer involves a desktop Personal Computer or traditional Laptop. This is the single-most important bit of data that should be keeping Steve Ballmer and Steven Sinofsky up at night because the decreasing importance of the PC powered desktop is now a FACT.
Again for emphasis. More than HALF of the traffic on the Internet does not involve a computer in the traditional sense.
Microsoft’s future, therefore, must hinge on it’s ability to leverage it’s existing dominance in the desktop operating system market to drive some really significant penetration in to some part of the consumer space.
Short of getting the Windows Phone 7 or XBox operating systems running on refrigerators and automobiles everywhere, the big bet is on Window’s 8’s ability to cross the platform gap to the tablet form factor and to do it quickly enough to still be able to matter. No small feat as shipping Windows 8 before it is technically ready might be the last mistake Microsoft can ever afford to make. (And Sinofsky has stated publicly that Microsoft will not ship Windows 8 before it is ready.)
Though Microsoft has pretty consistently failed when building products for the consumer space (with the notable exception of the xBox) and more specifically they have failed in regards to the tablet form factor, Microsoft has an ace up it’s sleeve in this latest round of device wars.
Original Equipment Manufacturers. Personal Computer OEMs are in the same boat as Microsoft.
They too are threatened by the decreasing importance of the classic personal computer and they too are struggling to succeed in the new consumer form factors. (Refer to HPs recent failures re: WebOS devices and Amazon’s release of it’s own Internet connected tablets.)
Though Microsoft’s treatment of OEMs was central to their Department of Justis problems of yesteryear, their OEM relationships have remained strong.
Based on Microsoft’s significant majority in the desktop market share, Microsoft holds sway over large portions of the the hardware manufacturing industry and can use this leverage to encourage evolutions in device hardware in ways that afford Microsoft unique synergies between the Windows operating system and the new hardware those OEMs will create.
When coupled with the massive patent portfolio that Microsoft has accumulated and it’s apparent skill at using it to slow the progress of one of it’s two major phone / tablet competitors (Android), Microsoft may just be able to finally cross the void from Desktop Operating System Mogul to “Computing Device” Operating System provider.
Only time will tell, but I think time is of the essence and it will be a race to dominance for all the technology providers in the mix.
Please use the comments section to share your thoughts!
And did I mention that the above is just my personal opinion and not based on any non-public information ? 🙂
I agree windows 8 will influence heavily on Ms’s future,
good luck with the rest of the Mozzilianz..
interesting… I have an interview at Microsoft in several days. Bing department. Do you think it’s worth a try?
I myself rarely use Windows, my primary os is Ubuntu. Do you think it’s got some sort of future?
I would absolutely still go on the interview. Search is an increasingly interesting space and just because Bing is not number one doesn’t mean you couldn’t have a blast and learn a ton !
I think it makes sense for webdevs to move(run) from “heavy” reliance on asp.net to html/js/css tools like backbone.js. Looking back, when they moved Scott Gu off of web tools to Azure, that seems to have been a defining moment.
I have to say I can relate to much of what you are saying Joe. With products like Microsoft Popfly, Microsoft Vine (that would have been so much better than FourSquare with a security feature), and then the confidence in the developer community on Silverlight really concerns me as a consumer what Microsoft is thinking. I like Microsoft. I am not one of their bashers, and they would be losing solid support if my confidence continues to be swayed. I thought Microsoft could afford to back away from mobile device technology for maybe one year. Mobile programming is really quite new and there are a lot of garbage applications on the market. With a sit back and observe approach, Microsoft could have benefited from the knowledge of trends that work and trends that don’t work.
For Silverlight; I do like it, but I have been kicked off Popfly, Vine and now I am slowly tinkering with Silverlight and limiting my time I devote to it.
But the really big deal to me is that I am not sure what to make of the information about the .NET Framework. This is an area that is very solid and provide an array of tools, resources, and integration not normally available. I like Master Pages, SiteMaps, server controls, jQuery integration and other JavaScript Frameworks, but this new Metro thing; I don’t even know what that is. I think Microsoft could really benefit by extending it’s development in the area of .NET. To me, with current technology, .NET could be taken up to a whole new level. But Microsoft needs to not come up with another suite of tools. Unlimited funds is not something that Microsoft customers have; we only want to purchase exactly what we need and get the biggest bang for the buck.
Early on, I remember using FrontPage and then SharePoint came out. With WebParts in SharePoint, I thought that it was just the version of FrontPage that developers wanted, but once again, it was another product. Many developers slammed FrontPage in favor of DreamWeaver(I used both).
I would like to see Microsoft succeed and can tell that it is not the same company that it used to be. I could go on, but on a final note, I would say Microsoft should learn from their venture with game controllers and stay away from Mobile phones for just a bit. Maybe consider developer tools for a video watch or get involved with developers on kinect; I see some excellent opportunities there integrating it with Geographic Information Systems applications, tools for the disabled, and motion/voice integration with perhaps Nuance(Dragon Naturally Speaking; which has worked well all the way back to Microsoft Access 97, although not advertised).
Your post was quite thought provoking and think we both do hope Microsoft re-gears itself to the reason many considered it pretty cool.
I know what it’s like to leave an organization with a lot of knowledge and work invested. Sometimes we have to leave what we take pride in when the frustration tips the scale.
However, I am glad to see that you have re-directed yourself in professional growth and hope you do quite well. Mozilla and you are lucky to have one another for some serious knowledge growth.
All the best to you and your new company.
Chris Sergent
Interesting, too much information to digest in one reading, so I bookmarking this to keep reading.
My take on this is that Microsoft current situation is the product of the disaster that .NET ended up being, SL and WPF were meant to be a ‘change in the game’, an effort that took 6 years to release (I saw early versions back in 2003), and 2.5 years after is declared, with euphemisms, obsolete.
What MS minimizes or does not understand completely is the fact that developers, whether they publicly expressed or not, don’t trust MS anymore, the love is gone. And it is not the rats abandoning the wreackage, is more ‘how am I supposed to trust you on your next step after this big failure’.
How is MS going to push this effort of placing Win 8 on the high scene again without developers?
Joe, it was very nice of you to write this. I for one have followed you, looked up to you, and learned an insane amount from you. I’ve gotten the sense from the beginning that you really like open source projects. I was surprised to see you left MS, I was not surprised you went to Mozilla.
I must say, it seems like based on your article, you have a bit of resentment probably for many reasons. It sure seems obvious from the outside that employee moral at MS is almost non existent. Something MS will need to work on or collapse in on itself for sure.
I do have a tough time however sitting back listening to so many people talk bad about all the patent battles MS is involved in. I’m no lawyer but hey, if I patent an idea in house or pay a sum of money for a business and obtain patents that way, you’ve got another thing coming if you think I’m going to sit by while other people use my patents to make their money. If you want to use the technology, lets trade patent licenses or pay me x amount to license it. All the big players including some smaller guys all play the patent trade / licensing game. I do think that because of the incredible amount of patents, companies sometime use patented technology without knowledge or are misinformed regarding whether to or not to use that technology. I think MS as well as any other company has every right to protect their IP, whether created in house or acquired. It seems that many companies are now playing dumb, ignorant or both when it comes to IP anymore and shame on them if they are. Its not fair to point the finger at MS regarding patent lawsuits when there are a half dozen other major players doing the same thing at any given time
MS is always the bully, although a company like Samsung dwarfs MS. But yet they settled, you’ve got to be kidding if you think they were just so scared of the big bully MS they just gave MS their lunch money. If that’s the case, hey Samsung, I have a patent, 5 dollars an android device or I’ll give you a swirly!
Enough of that rant. I almost hope MS does get a big financial scare, have even more layoffs and is forced to restructure, sure seems like they would benefit from it. They need it to be a place where people love to work and the products that come out of employees loving their job will get MS back on track. They would see more innovation, better quality and I think their reputation will also benefit. They are like the bad kid in high school that’s all grown up, the smallest thing done wrong will be emphasized and blown out of proportion. They need the world to see them go through their come to Jesus moment and MS will have to come back as a re-born / saved grownup that wants to change.
I’m kind of glad you are with Mozilla, while FF is the only product I use, I’ve went away from using it as my main browser a couple years ago. Not sure of your involvement with FF I wouldn’t complain to see some innovations that matter, not ones I’ll never use or have to dig to find.
In any case, I hope MS succeeds and prospers, I do also hope Mozilla, Apple and many others do well and prosper so we all learn and grow and innovate. Best of luck to you Joe, I’ll miss your tutorials and other .net relayed contributions greatly. You are awesome!
@ChrisSergent and anyone else who cares to listen
I appreciate your comments. I’ve read similar things on various blogs and articles for some months now. What’s happening to .Net? Why would Microsoft do this? Will my skill set still be relevant or even useful?
Personally, to understand what’s going on I think you have to look at why the .Net Framework was created in the first place. Project Longhorn was intended to revolutionize the operating system, particularly MS Windows. It was meant to completely transform what Windows is. The basic idea was to take the premise of Java, managed code, and expand that writ-large over the entire operating system. Indeed, the whole computer would become a managed environment.
Native code (i.e., assembler, C, C++) would give way to completely safe, managed modules. Everything would run in a virtualized environment the way Java programs run on the JVM. (Why do you think C++ seemed to die at Microsoft in favor of C# for so long, and now there is a manufactured Renaissance of native code? C++ never died in the broader industry by the way, just in the Microsoft space.)
That’s basically the idea. While progress on the new Windows (Longhorn) continued, the .Net Framework came out when it did to get developers to begin writing applications now (i.e., c. 2001) for the new code paradigm. That way, when the new Windows was released, there would already be a healthy menu of applications already targeting the new OS. And developers would already be up and running with the skill sets needed for the new way of programming.
Brilliant really!
Windows XP does not need the .Net Framework. It’s just a bridge tacked onto it. But doing things that way gave developers a way to start thinking and working in what was supposed to be the brave new world of WinFS. When that new Windows came out, you wouldn’t really need the .Net Framework, because essentially the whole operating system was one big .Net Framework.
Well, we all know what happened next. Longhorn crashed and burned like the Hindenburg. Ballmer and company had to shut the whole thing down and start over. When Vista did finally get released, it wasn’t at all what Microsoft had been promising. It turned out to be just another iteration of the old NT kernel Dave Cutler had created years earlier. This left a bit of a problem though. What to do with .Net and the tool set that had been growing over the years?
This is where I think Microsoft really began to lay the groundwork for their own doom, albeit unwittingly. The company still believed they could dominate and control the internet, corralling everyone into their non-standard, proprietary version of the net. If you create great developer tools the rest will naturally follow. All developers and end users will gravitate to Microsoft technology, right? But that’s not how things work. People and business seem to lean towards open standards in all industries. It just makes things work better. Microsoft tried to buck that fact of nature and lost. It wasn’t the first time (remember NetBUI?). So now the company is caving in to the need to accept the reality of open standards, at least for the most part. Notice how they dumped their own AJAX control toolkit in favor of Jquery. Now IE is also becoming more standards compliant. The best part of ASP.Net MVC is how it generates some really nice standards compliant HTML. It’s not surprising then that the emphasis for Windows 8 is HTML 5 and Javascript.
But that’s the rub, isn’t it? If all apps are going to wind up on the cloud, and Microsoft is counting on the same things that everyone else is using (HTML 5 and Javascript), then what do you need Microsoft for anymore? Why buy a license for Windows if that’s how things are going to be going forward? Microsoft’s secret weapon is everyone’s secret weapon. In all fairness to Steve Ballmer, I’m not sure there is anything he could have done to prevent this. And Windows 8, I predict, will just accelerate the company’s demise. The fact is, the business model that made Microsoft so successful is dead. And to the extent the company tries to hang on to that model, then Microsoft is dead too. Requiescat in pace.
So what should .Net developers do? Dump .Net. Period.
There is no future in it. None. Steve Ballmer and Steven Sinofsky are right to move away from it. It’s a proprietary stack originally developed for a dream that never came true, dragged needlessly into an era where client based computing is losing its relevance. Functionally, it’s just middleware overhead you don’t need, particularly on the client. I would like to see C# adapted to the new paradigm though. I think Anders Hejlsberg created something really good, I’d hate to see it die. Otherwise, when you upgrade your Windows 7, do so. Upgrade to a Mac. I did. Actually, I have mine dual booting with Lion and Ubuntu. I am writing this from the Ubuntu side now in fact. I’m also learning PHP and MySQL. Move on. It hurts, but you get over it. In this case it really is a good thing. Say it with me…
Farewell Microsoft. Requiescat in pace.
Thanks for your comments. You are spot on when it comes to .NET. In my opinion ASP.NET in particular has created a new style of developers – I call them “Use the wizard developers”. The code comes heavily bloated with behind the scenes mappings and code generation that it becomes a pain to manage and for the developers who like to write their own code rather than having tools write it for them – rails is the perfect alternative.
We will miss your tutorials the most and wishing you the very best for you at Mozilla.
The cold fact bro, many will see this as sad, is that for a lot of us Microsoft is family and we have been loyal from the start.
I’m not saying that’s good or bad, just that it is. Semper Fi
To those who predict the death of MS, remember the words of Samuel Clemmens, “Reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated.”
Microsoft may not maintain it’s total market dominance, but as the provider of operating systems and development platforms in use by the DOD and intelligence community, it ain’t going away anytime soon. Yes, there are some Linux/Unix servers and Java apps, but not in enough numbers to matter. There’s even one agency that still uses Lotus Notes for email, but Notes/Domino is otherwise dead to the government.
Unless you’re on the open internet, you wouldn’t believe the hoops one has to jump through to get even the simplest open source widgets approved, so EVERYTHING is (re)developed in-house even though you’re obviously reinventing the wheel. I am grateful beyond belief that MS included jQuery in VS2010 because it gives me a baseline to work with.
For .NET developer pukes (like me) and IT/security pukes alike, it’s the one space that cannot be outsourced and if you have a clearance with polygraph, you can make double the money of most geeks. Of course, someone will eventually woo the government away from MS, but it won’t be anytime soon…
So Windows will be a USA DoD product ? 🙂
Though I agree. Microsoft is becoming IBM without the service revenue, or the Hardware…..
As a SQL Server DBA I don’t often get to see the other sides of Microsoft and this was an interesting read. However, I do think their SQL Server product is growing stronger every release and is probably one of them gems in the server products’ portfolio. And with SQL 2008 and upcoming SQL 12 features for the the Business Intelligence space (which is exploding btw) I think they can maintain a good foothold in that area.
Tiobe doesn’t agree with you there:
C#:
http://www.tiobe.com/index.php/paperinfo/tpci/C_.html
PHP:
http://www.tiobe.com/index.php/paperinfo/tpci/PHP.html
You are mistaking the use of C# with the use of ASP.NET
I could see ASP.NET becoming the new Coldfusion in a couple of years. But like it or not there will be roughly half a bajillion legacy .net apps to maintain for years to come. So many businesses “went electronic” during .NET’s ascension to power and that will mean that .net developers will always be needed to keep those LOB apps running. If asp.net is the new coldfusion, maybe then the reset of .net framework is the new cobol or fortran :). One of the things that hurts the .NET space the most is that it is not cross platform (no, mono doesn’t count – it’s not 100% conversion). As far as server side web technologies, it will be interesting to see what rises to the top. Ruby looks like it is already declining, php has been there but not many businesses write LOB php apps, and Java’s been chugging along this whole time.
You’ve noted that this is just your speculation and it’s not based on any inside information! So what about the “inside info.”? Do you have any to share?
🙂
Well my mother was cobol programer (time of punch cards, tape devices & later ), my father 28 years IBM employee. I start in 85 with computers. So this time gives me a lot of perspective. And make me agnostic of
I remember the time when downloading a CD take me days. BBS in the university ufff. A lot of histories.
We need to change with the times. And make mistakes with technology. We need to forget and be ready for change. Times are as clothes they go back. Mainframes are in raising again!
I worked with Apple some time in version 7 times. They need better products with the same marketing. But massification is not his strong muscle. Personally I expect to version 3 of any product to use it.
MS-DOS, Windows 3.1, Windows Xp, Vista 7 all the version I known everyone of them.
The current times are mobility, web, cloud, security, user experience on all those enviroments.
Yes as Administrator, Enterprises ends waiting for a totally crashed machine to buy a new one. Unless they see another doing the same work in less time. So I procure to give a little bits of speed in his lives.
Or with the bosses machines and then he inherits to his assistant. Few are the comanies that change everything at once.
Cost is a primery concern, speed and beauty for users. Bosses want beauty, speed and the cost is less improtant.
Consumers wants a beutifull devices that gives him status, productivity in a fare cost.
Consumers buy what they see working, in TV with a friend and casue less problem. Is like buy / maintain a car.
The paradigm is start the new tendency, learn, use & forget. And start the cicle again. Live the life as it comes. Not as you want to come.
The times for a exclusive solution are gone consumer has vite in the enterprise, social networks too.
So windows phone 7 agree needs a lot better time to market. Consumer wants personalization. Call IT departmen and offer at least a device. We see everybody in the enterprise and suggest and buy the equipment. More then 1 carrir and more then 1 models per carrier. Id not unlocked devices.
Security based on obscurity is not a solution. In any brand (Apple specially). Apple devices torage very well “malware”
Windows 8 needs to change the paradigm but mantain options not everybody has the same use and the change is slow in change. Excellent move a preview of it in last Build (PDC).
Apple is innovator a motivates change but still are slow, expensive and not very durable. Slowly is losing his diferentiators. iphone 4s dissapointment.
But basically the humans are very similar change slowly, learn slowly, and cost are primer factor. And the primer most of the time they don´t forget. A excellent good impression is the best.
Almost any brand do the same diferrently but cost, time to market, learnig curve, support and warranties are big factors.
Be adaptative people, brands are slow is this.
Well I need to go bye. See you world
Sorry for the yping mistakes!
twitter: reysys
Facebook: reynaldo ruiz flores
@henk
‘Tiobe doesn’t agree with you there:’
And yet, did you notice in the url’s what technology they use? PHP!
Thank you for making my point.
I enjoyed this article. Moreover, I wanted to express my best wishes for you in your new work. We spoke on the phone a number of years ago and you were very gracious. I wish you ongoing success at Mozilla.
Thanks Bob – nice to hear from you !
All the best!
More than a few times this year I was tempted to get a new laptop but then I realized that XP won’t be on there and I would have to deal with windows 7 and I put off the purchase. I wonder how many other people have thought that (most don’t go out of their way to leave a comment on that so we don’t really know. I suspect a lot.
Hey Joe,
This was VERY enlightening. I always wonder where trends are going, and this is definetly a great insiders view of whats happening inside the metaphorical walls of microsoft.
From the previews I have seen of Windows 8, I am personally not impressived with the UI (at least not yet) because in the health care industry it is going to confuse many medical professionals who do not work on computers regularly.
With that said, I am glad you are moving on to better grounds! You my friend are the one who got me interested into programming. I did the open IE and search google for AJAX thing and found your videos back in 2009 on using the UpdatePanel in web forms. From that moment on I watched all your videos on asp.net/learn and now I develop many .NET applications.
Hope they stick around for a while.
Thanks for everything!